WR
Luther Burden III
- Last 4 games
- 8.50 pts/game
- 2027 average
- 9.33 pts/game
- Trend
- ▼ -9%
His last 4 games, reaching back into 2026. The last 4 games are darker; the dashed line is his 2027 average.
Weekly finishes
- Top 12 weeks
- 0 of 3
- Top 24 weeks
- 1 of 3
- Top 36 weeks
- 1 of 3
- Average finish
- WR41
- Best finish
- WR15
| Season | Games | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 | Avg finish | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3 | 0 (0%) | 1 (33%) | 1 (33%) | WR41 | WR15 |
| 2026 | 15 | 2 (13%) | 2 (13%) | 6 (40%) | WR55 | WR1 |
Where he ranked among all WRs each week he played, by this league’s scoring. The boxes are 2027.
Consistency
- Floor
- 4.2 worst 25%
- Typical
- 6.6 median
- Ceiling
- 9.0 best 25%
- 10+ points
- 24% of games
- 15+ points
- 18% of games
- 20+ points
- 6% of games
His last 17 games (a season's worth), until he has six this season.
Week 5 matchup: @ GB
- PPG by WRs vs GB
- 29.7 pts/game
- Matchup
- 10
- His career vs GB
- 9.00 pts/game in 1 game
- Last time
- 9.00 pts, 2026 week 14
| Stretch | Games | Avg PPG by WRs | Avg matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next 4 games | Wk 5 @GB, Wk 6 @ATL, Wk 7 NE, Wk 8 @SEA | 26.6 pts/game | 15.3 |
| Fantasy playoffs (weeks 15–17) | Wk 15 @BUF, Wk 16 GB, Wk 17 DET | 31.5 pts/game | 6.3 |
| Rest of season | Wk 5 @GB, Wk 6 @ATL, Wk 7 NE, Wk 8 @SEA, Wk 9 TB, Wk 11 NO, Wk 12 @DET, Wk 13 JAX, Wk 14 @MIA, Wk 15 @BUF, Wk 16 GB, Wk 17 DET, Wk 18 @MIN | 27.1 pts/game | 14.8 |
Matchup of 1 is best and 32 is worst. Full schedule on the Season tab
Situations
| Split | Games | Pts/game | vs his average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9 | 8.19 | +11% |
| Away | 9 | 6.52 | -11% |
| Dome or closed roof | 3 | 1.93 | -74% |
| Outdoors | 15 | 8.44 | +15% |
| Cold (40°F or below) | 4 | 8.25 | +12% |
| Windy (15+ mph) | 1 | 5.60 | – |
| After a bye | 1 | 7.10 | – |
| Thursday games (short week) | 0 | – | – |
| Division games | 6 | 4.18 | -43% |
| Grass | 16 | 7.95 | +8% |
| Artificial turf | 2 | 2.60 | -65% |
Every regular-season game on record since 2026 (18 games). Overall average 7.36 pts/game.
- With Caleb Williams
- 6.83 pts/game, 17 games
- Without him
- 16.30 pts/game, 1 game
| With | Without | |
|---|---|---|
| Targets per game | 4.2 | 11.0 |
| Carries per game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Red-zone looks per game | 0.4 | 5.0 |
| Snap share | 8% | 61% |
Games without him: 2027 wk 3 (16.3).
Only seasons they were on the same NFL team. “Without” means Caleb Williams didn’t play that week (injury, rest or not yet with the team). Too few games apart to compare yet.
Usage
| 2027 season | Last 4 games | |
|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 64% | 64% |
| Target share | 25% | 22% |
| Air yards share | 28% | 22% |
| Touches per game | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Carries per game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Targets per game | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Rushing share of touches | 12% | 14% |
| Yards per touch | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Catch rate | 65% | 67% |
| Points per opportunity | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Red-zone carries per game | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Goal-line carries per game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Red-zone targets per game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Share of team's red-zone looks | 14% | 11% |
| Red-zone touchdowns per game | 0.33 | 0.25 |
Opportunities are carries plus targets. Snap share comes from the NFL’s snap counts and can lag a day behind. Red zone is inside the opponent’s 20, goal line inside the 5; red-zone looks are carries plus targets, and touchdowns are his own rushing or receiving scores there.
Touchdown luck
- Red-zone TDs
- 1
- Expected
- 2.6 from his looks
- Difference
- -1.6 TDs
Scoring fewer touchdowns than his looks usually produce. Due for more.
| Games | Red-zone carries | Goal-line carries | Red-zone targets | TDs | Expected | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 season | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| Last 17 games | 17 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 2026 season | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Expected uses league-wide rates from every season on record: 42% of goal-line carries (inside the 5) score, 8% of other red-zone carries and 25% of red-zone targets. Rushing and receiving touchdowns only. Big gaps tend to even out.
Age and contract outlook
- Age
- 22 this season
- Typical peak for WRs
- 24
- Years left
- – free agent
| League year | Age | Typical change | Projected pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22 | now | 7.8 |
| 2028 | 23 | +0.5 | 8.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | +0.9 | 8.7 |
The curve is how WRs scored from one season to the next at each age, averaged over every back-to-back pair of 8+ game seasons since 2017 (this league’s scoring). Projections start from his last 17 games and add the typical change; they say nothing about injuries or role. He’s a free agent, so this shows the next three seasons.
Compare WRs
Pick one or two WRs to see them next to Luther Burden III. The list is everyone at the position who’s played in 2027, best scorers first.